Electric car takeover by 2020

BEST BUY@ ebay,AMAZON, Nvidia. Posted by Kashyap POnkia via 
Here's a prediction: Electric/Hyrbrid cars will account for the majority of new car sales by 2020.
The more I think about it, the more I believe it can/must be true. But what do you guys think?
My reasoning is this - Almost every major manufacturer now has one if not several electric/hybrid cars in their stable, with many more models due to be released this year and especially next year. Many brands are offsetting the higher cost of EVs by offering them as 'premium' or 'luxury' cars, eg, Cadillac's ELR. Alternatively, at the lower end of the market, manufacturers are offering cheaper, smaller capacity vehicles which, for the most part, fully cover the daily needs of most drivers, albeit with the assistance of a gas engine for longer, less frequent journeys (road trips over 200 miles). Factor in increases in battery efficiency and the economics will only continue to favour EVs.

 It all sounds like science fiction: cars that drive themselves, navigate streets and avoid crashes. But last week Nissan said it would have such "autonomous cars" to sell by 2020. And General Motors chimed in that it may have a similar model by then. Does this mean that within seven years you will be whisked down the street by your car while texting or making phone calls legally? Probably not. While the technology involving video cameras and radar sensors exists now in experimental form, concerns about how to regulate such cars for highway safety will likely slow their adoption.  

The internal combustion engine is hard to beat

Environmental regulations for vehicles are tightening around the world, with carbon dioxide emissions rules in Europe and China, as well as fuel economy standards in the U.S. This will lead to a rise in hybrid vehicles--McKinsey predicts that they will make up 20% to 25% of all vehicles by 2020. But the internal combustion engine will still be king, present in more than 90% of vehicles (including those hybrids). Fully-electric vehicles probably won't make up more than 5% of all vehicles manufactured, according to McKinsey.
Kaas says there are two reasons for this: the high cost of electric vehicle batteries and consumer "range anxiety," or the fear that an EV will run out of juice while on the road. "It's something that does need to be addressed in a more educational manner," he says.


The only piece of the puzzle that is really missing is the charger network. The way I see it is that electric cars are quite similar to mobile/cellular phones. It wasn't so long ago that phone networks didn't actually cover all the places people wanted to go. As each carrier rolled out extensions to their network, coverage rates became something of a competitive advantage. I see a similar situation with EV manufactures/chargers, unless of course the government mandates a nation-wide charger network. Either way, EVs win.
The days of gas are over, and everyone is going to benefit from it.